The initial goal for the Adjustable Block program is for participating systems to be delivering 1 million RECs annually by the end of the 2020-2021 delivery year (i.e., May 31, 2021). Based on a standard capacity factor, this entails ~670 MW of new photovoltaic generation.
At the core of the ABP is the concept of a “block.” A block constitutes a pre-established amount of program capacity available for a certain project type at a transparent, administratively set REC price or prices, with prices differing slightly depending on project attributes. Blocks are intended to create a progression from one price level to another based on the response of the market. A strong response from the market will result in a rapid progression to a lower price level, and very strong response will trigger a lottery process to see who gets a spot.
Determination for holding a lottery: For each Group/category, 14 calendar days after Block 1 opens, the number of project applications received will be assessed to determine if the aggregate MW nameplate capacity of those projects is greater than 200% of the Block 1 capacity for that Group/category.
Determination for holding a lottery: For each Group/category, 14 calendar days after Block 1 opens, the number of project applications received will be assessed to determine if the aggregate MW nameplate capacity of those projects is greater than 200% of the Block 1 capacity for that Group/category.
Group A – Community Solar: 940 MW of applications received ; lottery threshold= 44 MW
2136 % oversubscribed!
Group B – Community Solar: 864 MW of applications received ; lottery threshold = 104 MW
830 % oversubscribed!
So how will they select the lottery winners?
According to the Program Administrator, InClime, all the application data is stored in a MYSQL database, which uses the standard SQL database language to retrieve and store data. Normally when one retrieves data it's returned in the order it is stored or indexed by default. However if we wish we can specify a sort order to return the data in any number of ways (alphabetical order, smallest to largest...). Among these choices is the option to return the data in a random order. The call would look something like:
$SQL = "SELECT s.*, rand($x) as r from table1 s
WHERE s.aa= ? and s.bb = ? and s.cc = ?
ORDER by r";
where $x is the microseconds from the PHP microtime function converted to an integer and the ? are part of our codeigniter framework of PHP scripting language. The SQL rand() function is, like most code-based random number generators, a pseudo-random code generator, meaning that if you start it with the same seed it will produce the same string of random numbers. As a result, we introduce another element of randomness that can't be predicted or manipulated by taking the microsecond portion of the time when the button is pushed to initiate the lottery and using that as a seed, which gives us 6 digits worth of numbers between every second. For example depending on the millisecond the button was pushed between second 1 and second 2 the millisecond number could be 0.587292 or 0.354391 or any other number between 0.000000 and .999999).
That's all pretty sophisticated and undoubtedly efficient way of going about this. However, I actually wouldn't have been put off if the IPA went old school in this instance. The machines to the left are designed and proven using statistical analysis to produce random combinations of numbers. Plus the balls are always visible during the mixing and drawing process -- they never disappear inside tubes or chambers. This helps prevent tampering; and since the drawings are televised live, it gives the viewer confidence that the drawing is not being fixed. Just borrow a couple of power ball machines and live stream the results, that would have been exciting and they probably could have generated some advertising revenue while they were at it.
That's all pretty sophisticated and undoubtedly efficient way of going about this. However, I actually wouldn't have been put off if the IPA went old school in this instance. The machines to the left are designed and proven using statistical analysis to produce random combinations of numbers. Plus the balls are always visible during the mixing and drawing process -- they never disappear inside tubes or chambers. This helps prevent tampering; and since the drawings are televised live, it gives the viewer confidence that the drawing is not being fixed. Just borrow a couple of power ball machines and live stream the results, that would have been exciting and they probably could have generated some advertising revenue while they were at it. 